Russia’s attack on Ukraine is no longer fresh news and for a lot of you, life carries on as normal. After all, it’d be hard to continuously put your life on hold for those suffering half a world away who you don’t know on a personal level. But what comes next will impact all of us collectively not just Ukrainians or Russians.
Russia’s war on Ukraine has had a deep impact on the global food trade network and it’ll continue to impact the lives of everyone living today. Let’s go in-depth to talk about how the Russia-Ukraine war could lead to global food insecurity and what you can do to prepare.
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Ukraine’s biggest food exports
Ukraine is the world’s leading exporter of wheat, sunflower oil, and corn. 17% of the world’s wheat export are supplied by Russia. The war in Ukraine means that much of these foods aren’t getting exported despite the mandate allowing farmers in Ukraine to keep working on their farms instead of joining the army. Farmers are encouraged to stay in Ukraine and continue to work on their farms.
- Ukraine exports 10% of the global wheat supply
- Ukraine exports 14% of the global corn supply
- Ukraine exports 48% of the global sunflower oil supply
Wheat, corn, and sunflower oil are still being produced in Ukraine and it’s being used to feed the people of Ukraine but it’s not being exported to other countries at previous levels before the war. Less export means less money made and with less money made, farmers can’t plant or harvest.
Food insecurity in Africa and the Middle East are amplified by the Russia-Ukraine war
Developing countries in Africa and the Middle East are hit the hardest. They have seen food prices soaring. Other richer countries who don’t rely on Ukraine’s export as much aren’t hit as hard but they are still seeing inflating food prices as a result of the Ukraine-Russia war.
48% of wheat imports into Algeria are from Ukraine. The war has a much larger impact on Algeria than most people think.
These are the countries that are the most reliant on Ukraine’s exports:
- Egypt
- Tunisia
- Algeria
- Morocco
- Lebanon
- Turkey
These countries are turning to other countries to replace the lost imports they would’ve gotten from Ukraine which further drives up the food prices. They will also try to replace wheat with rice, barley, and other grains which means the price of these items will continue soaring all over the world.
The least food-secure countries will also be hit the hardest even if they don’t rely on Ukraine for much of their wheat imports. Countries such as:
- Bangladesh
- Madagascar
- Yemen
They are some of the poorest countries in the world and they no doubt, are receiving the first few indirect blows of the war.
Why are food prices soaring now?
The reasons for soaring food prices are summarized below:
- Ukraine is exporting less wheat, sunflower oil, and oat
- Farmlands lost to war
- Farming machinery is damaged in the war and requires time to be fixed
- Black Sea Ports are blocked preventing ships from leaving with goods meant to be exported
- Ukraine has banned the export of wheat, oat, and other staple foods
- Countries that depended on Ukraine’s goods are now seeking alternatives like rice and barley from other countries
- Restaurants require a lot of sunflower oil to fry their foods. They’re also trying to locate the rest of the sunflower oil
- EU relies on Ukraine for 50% of its sunflower oil import. The entire Europe is trying to secure the last sunflower oil reserves
- Processed foods that use sunflower oil as one of their ingredients are seeking alternatives which drive up all whole range of food prices
- Less wheat means a surge in animal feed prices making things like milk, meat, and other animal products more expensive
The reason food prices are soaring is that Ukraine isn’t able to export the food as much as it could before as their ships are stranded at the Black Sea Ports. Their ships are blocked from leaving thus export is impossible. There is also news traveling from Ukraine that staple foods such as oats and wheat are banned from being exported to other countries for fear of food shortages.
Ukraine is also losing farmland to wars. Not only that, but the war also damages farming machinery that takes time to be repaired.
Less food being exported means other countries who relied on Ukraine’s imports are seeking out other countries for import opportunities regarding wheat, barley, rice, etc. With the demand for these items rising, the price will also rise.
Sunflower oil is another primary export by Ukraine. The war means that the rest of the world is now fighting for the rest of the sunflower oil reserves. The EU imports 50% of its Sunflower oils from Ukraine. Egypt imports 85% of wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Yemen imports 40% of wheat from Ukraine and Russia. And, for Lebanon, that number is 50%. They are now looking to secure more sunflower oil before the supply run dries.
Many major restaurant chains like McDonald’s and KFC use sunflower oil to fry their french fries and chickens. They will also be hit quite hard. We’ll see soaring prices not just in the grocery store but in fast food restaurant chains as well.
Restaurant chains and food manufacturers are scrambling to find alternatives to sunflower oil and wheat. All of this further increases the price of sunflower oil all over the world.
The reason we aren’t feeling the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war as much as we should now is that food imports and exports (from the type of food to the quantity of such food) are determined months in advance. In a couple of months’ time, we’ll feel the impact of food shortage and inflation much more than we’re already feeling now.
Impact of Russia’s war on Europe’s farmers
Animal feeds are more expensive and less attainable for farmers than before the war.
In order for farms to raise animals and turn profits, farmers need to acquire animal feeds which often include wheat. Unfortunately, wheat is one of Ukraine’s biggest exports. With less wheat being exported out of Ukraine, animal feeds prices rise, which eats away at the farmer’s already thin margin.
Should you start stockpiling food?
If everyone starts panicking and stockpiling food, it’ll for sure drive up the already hot grains and oil market. You can see why you don’t see a lot of news stations mass advising civilians to start stockpiling.
There are strong reasons to believe that things will get worst in the coming months. Wheat, rice, oil, etc will get more expensive. Restaurant meals will become less affordable. Meats will also become more expensive as it costs more to feed the pigs and cows to maturity for the slaughterhouse. There are cases of people seeing security wires being placed around the meat section in grocery stores.
Everything, in general, will cost more. This is in addition to the 8% in inflation we’re already seeing before the war.
So yes, you should start buying up more flour, noodles, rice, canned corn, canned meat, etc. Food will become less affordable over time. Don’t spend your money without thinking. Use it to buy foods you can stockpile to eat for later.
Buy perishable foods that can last a long time. Check the expiration dates. Store your food in a dry dark space, not in direct exposure to sunlight for longer shelf life.
Final thought
It’s hard to predict when the Ukraine-Russia war will end and how much further impact it’ll have on our economy and food supply chain but one thing is for certain, the war is causing food shortages all over the world and many experts believe that famine isn’t out of the picture. The problem will get worst in the next few months so prepare now while you still can!
